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From Prototypes to Sparse ECG Explanations: SHAP-driven Counterfactuals for Multivariate Time-series Multi-class Classification
Jagiellonian University, Kraków, Poland.
Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway.
Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway.
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology. Jagiellonian University, Kraków, Poland.
2026 (English)In: Information Systems Frontiers, ISSN 1387-3326, E-ISSN 1572-9419, p. 1-34Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

In eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI), instance-based explanations for time series have gained increasing attention due to their potential for actionable and interpretable insights in domains such as healthcare. Addressing the challenges of explainability of state-of-the-art models, we propose a prototype-driven framework for generating sparse counterfactual explanations tailored to 12-lead ECG classification models. Our method employs SHAP-based thresholds to identify critical signal segments and convert them into interval rules, uses Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) and medoid clustering to extract representative prototypes, and aligns these prototypes to query R-peaks for coherence with the sample being explained. The framework generates counterfactuals that modify only 78% of the original signal while maintaining 81.3% validity across all classes and achieving 43% improvement in temporal stability. We evaluate three variants of our approach, Original, Sparse, and Aligned Sparse, with class-specific performance ranging from 98.9% validity for myocardial infarction (MI) to challenges with hypertrophy (HYP) detection (13.2%). This approach supports near real-time generation (< 1 second) of clinically valid counterfactuals and provides a foundation for interactive explanation platforms. Our findings establish design principles for physiologically-aware counterfactual explanations in AI-based diagnosis systems and outline pathways toward user-controlled explanation interfaces for clinical deployment. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2026.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
New York, NY: Springer , 2026. p. 1-34
Keywords [en]
Explainable AI, ECG explanations, Sparse time-series counterfactuals, Rule extraction
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-58711DOI: 10.1007/s10796-026-10711-9ISI: 001711582400001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105035096993OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hh-58711DiVA, id: diva2:2050906
Available from: 2026-04-07 Created: 2026-04-07 Last updated: 2026-04-27Bibliographically approved

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Nalepa, Grzegorz

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