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Rethinking the forecasting of innovation diffusion: A combined actor- and system approach
Halmstad University, School of Business, Innovation and Sustainability. Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1208-7011
Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3134-4442
Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6816-582X
2025 (English)In: Technological forecasting & social change, ISSN 0040-1625, E-ISSN 1873-5509, Vol. 214, p. 1-14, article id 124058Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Technological forecasting has significantly expanded over the last decades, leading to widespread use of forecasting models for explaining technology adoption and diffusion of innovation. While these models are broadly used, they have faced criticism for narrowing the explanatory components of adoption, focusing on adopters, innovation characteristics, or environmental factors, but seldom combine these to address complex problems holistically. This paper aims to combine actor- and system perspectives on innovation diffusion with the intention to broaden the explanatory power of traditional forecasting models. The study focuses on the case of solar photovoltaic (PV) diffusion in Sweden, surveying 46,507 residential PV adopters that applied for the capital subsidy program between 2009 and 2021 about their adoption satisfaction. Findings suggest that traditional models primarily account for direct effects on adoption satisfaction, whereas incorporating system-level factors captures indirect effects, providing a more comprehensive understanding of technology adoption. This highlights the interplay between actor- and system-level factors and acknowledging the holistic nature of innovation diffusion, which can inform future forecasting practices. © 2025 The Authors.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
New York, NY: Elsevier, 2025. Vol. 214, p. 1-14, article id 124058
Keywords [en]
Forecasting, Technology adoption, Adoption satisfaction, Solar PV, Innovation diffusion
National Category
Economics Business Administration
Research subject
Smart Cities and Communities, REBEL
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-55542DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124058ISI: 001431226600001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85218103820&OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hh-55542DiVA, id: diva2:1940888
Funder
Swedish Energy Agency, 49379- 1Available from: 2025-02-27 Created: 2025-02-27 Last updated: 2025-10-01Bibliographically approved

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Cardol, Hanna

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