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Post-Correction of time series forecasts
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology.
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology.
2023 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (professional degree), 20 credits / 30 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Time series forecasting is an important problem with various applications in different domains. Improving forecast performance has been the center of investigation in the last decades. Several pieces of research show that old statistical methods, such as ARIMA, are still state-of-the-art in many domains and applications. However, one of the main limitations of these methods is their low performance on longer horizons in multi-step forecasting scenarios. We attack this problem from an entirely new perspective. We propose a new universal post-correction approach that can be applied to fix the problematic forecasts of any forecasting model, including ARIMA. The idea is intuitive: We query the last window of observations plus the given forecast, searching for similar shapes in history, and using the future shape of the nearest neighbor, we post-correct the forecast. In order to make sure that post-correction is adequate, we train a supervised decision model on the successfulness of post-corrections on the training set. Our experiments on several datasets show that the proposed post-correction method effectively improves forecasts for 30 steps ahead and beyond.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023.
Keywords [en]
time series forecasting
National Category
Engineering and Technology Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-51164OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hh-51164DiVA, id: diva2:1778192
Educational program
Computer Science and Engineering, 300 credits
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2023-07-03 Created: 2023-06-30 Last updated: 2025-10-01Bibliographically approved

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fulltext(3882 kB)1360 downloads
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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf