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Forecasting Visitors in Smart Building Environments: Modeling and estimation of the number of guests using SARIMAX
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology.
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology.
2023 (English)Independent thesis Basic level (degree of Bachelor), 10 credits / 15 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

Time series modeling is a commonly used approach in exchange for studying and analyzing the data to support decision-making in companies based on historical data and thereby help them to save costs. This work introduces a forecasting framework that utilizes a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model to forecast the number of people expected to enter a building within a short period. We applied the model to forecast the abovementioned value at California University Irvine's main door using an open-source dataset that comprised data spanning four months. The experimental results demonstrate that the SARIMAX model exhibits encouraging performance in classification andevaluation, as evidenced by the promising results. The RMSE values for one,two, three, and four prediction weeks are 24.6, 40.4, 36, and 38.7, respectively, accompanied by corresponding percentage errors of 2%, 4.8%,4.76%, and 1.01%. These metrics highlight the model's ability to predict outcomes accurately and indicate its effectiveness in forecasting over various time horizons. Furthermore, the proposed model addresses the issue of inadequate future planning and analyzes foot traffic to provide a reliable forecasting technique, which is essential for modern building facilities management.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023.
Keywords [en]
SARIMAX, People Counter, Time Series
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-50892OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hh-50892DiVA, id: diva2:1771976
External cooperation
WSP
Subject / course
Computer science and engineering
Educational program
Computer Science and Engineering, 300 credits
Supervisors
Examiners
Available from: 2023-06-04 Created: 2023-06-21 Last updated: 2023-06-21Bibliographically approved

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Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

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CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf