Machine learning for early prediction of acute myocardial infarction or death in acute chest pain patients using electrocardiogram and blood tests at presentationShow others and affiliations
2023 (English)In: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, E-ISSN 1472-6947, Vol. 23, no 1, p. 1-10, article id 25Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
Aims: In the present study, we aimed to evaluate the performance of machine learning (ML) models for identification of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or death within 30 days among emergency department (ED) chest pain patients. Methods and results: Using data from 9519 consecutive ED chest pain patients, we created ML models based on logistic regression or artificial neural networks. Model inputs included sex, age, ECG and the first blood tests at patient presentation: High sensitivity TnT (hs-cTnT), glucose, creatinine, and hemoglobin. For a safe rule-out, the models were adapted to achieve a sensitivity > 99% and a negative predictive value (NPV) > 99.5% for 30-day AMI/death. For rule-in, we set the models to achieve a specificity > 90% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of > 70%. The models were also compared with the 0 h arm of the European Society of Cardiology algorithm (ESC 0 h); An initial hs-cTnT < 5 ng/L for rule-out and ≥ 52 ng/L for rule-in. A convolutional neural network was the best model and identified 55% of the patients for rule-out and 5.3% for rule-in, while maintaining the required sensitivity, specificity, NPV and PPV levels. ESC 0 h failed to reach these performance levels. Discussion: An ML model based on age, sex, ECG and blood tests at ED arrival can identify six out of ten chest pain patients for safe early rule-out or rule-in with no need for serial blood tests. Future studies should attempt to improve these ML models further, e.g. by including additional input data. © 2023, The Author(s).
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
London: BioMed Central (BMC), 2023. Vol. 23, no 1, p. 1-10, article id 25
Keywords [en]
Acute myocardial infarction, Chest pain, Deep learning, Emergency department, High-sensitivity troponin, Machine learning
National Category
Cardiac and Cardiovascular Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-49965DOI: 10.1186/s12911-023-02119-1ISI: 000924754500002PubMedID: 36732708Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85147318502OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hh-49965DiVA, id: diva2:1739363
Funder
Vinnova, 2018-01942Swedish Research Council, 2019-00198Swedish Heart Lung Foundation, 2018-0173
Note
Open access funding provided by Lund University. This work was supported by an ALF research grant at Skåne University Hospital and by a grant from Region Skåne. This study was part of the AIR Lund (Artificially Intelligent use of Registers at Lund University) research environment and received funding from the Swedish Research Council [VR; Grant No. 2019-00198] and Sweden’s innovation agency [Vinnova; Grant No. 2018-01942]. In addition, the study was funded by the Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation [2018-0173]. There was no industry involvement. Funding organizations had no role in the planning, design or realisation of the study, collection, analysis or interpretation of data, or preparation, review or approval of the manuscript. The authors do hereby declare that all illustrations and figures in the manuscript are entirely original and do not require reprint permission.
2023-02-242023-02-242023-08-21Bibliographically approved