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SurvSHAP: A Proxy-Based Algorithm for Explaining Survival Models with SHAP
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology, Center for Applied Intelligent Systems Research (CAISR).ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9416-5647
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology, Center for Applied Intelligent Systems Research (CAISR). RISE Research Institutes of Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3272-4145
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology, Center for Applied Intelligent Systems Research (CAISR).ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5163-2997
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology, Center for Applied Intelligent Systems Research (CAISR). Lund University, Lund, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1145-4297
2022 (English)In: 2022 IEEE 9th International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics (DSAA) / [ed] Joshua Zhexue Huang; Yi Pan; Barbara Hammer; Muhammad Khurram Khan; Xing Xie; Laizhong Cui; Yulin He, Piscataway, NJ: IEEE, 2022Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Survival Analysis models usually output functions (survival or hazard functions) rather than point predictions like regression and classification models. This makes the explanations of such models a challenging task, especially using the Shapley values. We propose SurvSHAP, a new model-agnostic algorithm to explain survival models that predict survival curves. The algorithm is based on discovering patterns in the predicted survival curves, the output of the survival model, that would identify significantly different survival behaviors, and utilizing a proxy model and SHAP method to explain these distinct survival behaviors. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that the SurvSHAP is able to capture the underlying factors of the survival patterns. Moreover, SurvSHAP results on the Cox Proportional Hazard model are compared with the weights of the model to show that we provide faithful overall explanations, with more fine-grained explanations of the sub-populations. We also illustrate the wrong model and explanations learned by a Cox model when applied to heterogeneous sub-populations. We show that a non-linear machine learning survival model with SurvSHAP can better model the data and provide better explanations than linear models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Piscataway, NJ: IEEE, 2022.
Keywords [en]
SurvSHAP, Explainable AI, Survival Patterns, SHAP, Shapley values, Proxy Model, Survival Analysis, Machine Learning
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-49149DOI: 10.1109/DSAA54385.2022.10032392ISI: 000967751000099Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85148538187ISBN: 978-1-6654-7330-9 (electronic)ISBN: 978-1-6654-7331-6 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hh-49149DiVA, id: diva2:1736098
Conference
The 9th IEEE International Conference on Data Science and Advanced Analytics (DSAA 2022), Shenzhen, China, October 13-16, 2022
Part of project
eXplainable Predictive Maintenance, Swedish Research Council
Funder
Knowledge Foundation
Note

Funding: This research was funded by the CHIST-ERA grant CHIST-ERA-19-XAI-012 and CAISR+ project funded by the Swedish Knowledge Foundation.

Available from: 2023-02-10 Created: 2023-02-10 Last updated: 2023-08-21Bibliographically approved

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Alabdallah, AbdallahPashami, SepidehRögnvaldsson, ThorsteinnOhlsson, Mattias

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