After the cold war the border or epicenter in the conflict between east and west has moved

north. From central Europe to the Baltic sea region. The Åland archipelago in the middle of

the Baltic Sea, is a military strategic interest for many actors in the Baltic Sea. Demilitarized

and neutral according to international law. This thesis will study the Swedish, Finish, Russian

and Nato perspective of which impact Åland has a on national security policy and military

strategy for the Baltic region. What are the mechanisms and strategic motives for the actors in

using Åland for military purposes. Will the international agreements concerning Åland have

any effect in armed conflict?

This case study is performed as a qualitative study based on Graham Allison and Philip

Zelikows book Essence of decision which will also serve as frame of reference for the thesis.

In order to understand Ålands special status according to international law, we have made a

historic exposé which aims to give the reader the background needed to understand the islands

significance, both historically and present. The analysis is based on four perspectives; The

actors ideological position, The rational actor model (RAM), Organizational behavior and

Governmental politics.

The result of this study shows that Åland will not be left untouched in case of a conflict in the

Baltic area. Due to the geographic position of the islands it will be affected regardless of its

status in accordance with international law. The motives for using Åland for military purposes

can be found with all our four actors with regards to the islands strategic location. The one

who can control Åland will also increase his ability to control sea and airspace in the northern

Baltics. He will also be able to control the sea lines of communication in to the bay of

Bothnia. The incentive to re-militarize Åland and use the island for own military purposes

however varies with the four actors. We have found that the incentive is strongest with

Finland and Sweden and very limited with Russia and Nato. Ålands status as demilitarized

and neutral will probably not have any big significance in an armed conflict in the Baltic sea

area. However, it may delay military intervention on Åland but not stop it.