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Transfer learning for remaining useful life prediction based on consensus self-organizing models
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology, Halmstad Embedded and Intelligent Systems Research (EIS), CAISR - Center for Applied Intelligent Systems Research.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3034-6630
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology, Halmstad Embedded and Intelligent Systems Research (EIS), CAISR - Center for Applied Intelligent Systems Research.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7796-5201
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology, Halmstad Embedded and Intelligent Systems Research (EIS), CAISR - Center for Applied Intelligent Systems Research.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5163-2997
(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The traditional paradigm for developing machine prognostics usually relies on generalization from data acquired in experiments under controlled conditions prior to deployment of the equipment. Detecting or predicting failures and estimating machine health in this way assumes that future field data will have a very similar distribution to the experiment data. However, many complex machines operate under dynamic environmental conditions and are used in many different ways. This makes collecting comprehensive data very challenging, and the assumption that pre-deployment data and post-deployment data follow very similar distributions is unlikely to hold. Transfer Learning (TL) refers to methods for transferring knowledge learned in one setting (the source domain) to another setting (the target domain). In this work, we present a TL method for predicting Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of equipment, under the assumption that labels are available only for the source domain and not the target domain. This setting corresponds to generalizing from a limited number of run-to-failure experiments performed prior to deployment into making prognostics with data coming from deployed equipment that is being used under multiple new operating conditions and experiencing previously unseen faults. We employ a deviation detection method, Consensus Self-Organizing Models (COSMO), to create transferable features for building the RUL regression model. These features capture how different target equipment is in comparison to its peers. The efficiency of the proposed TL method is demonstrated using the NASA Turbofan Engine Degradation Simulation Data Set. Models using the COSMO transferable features show better performance than other methods on predicting RUL when the target domain is more complex than the source domain.

Keywords [en]
Transfer Learning, Feature-Representation Transfer, Domain Adaptation, Remaining Useful Life Prediction, Consensus Self-Organising Models
National Category
Other Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-41364OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hh-41364DiVA, id: diva2:1384806
Funder
Vinnova, 201703073
Note

Som manuskript i avhandling / As manuscript in thesis

Available from: 2020-01-10 Created: 2020-01-10 Last updated: 2020-01-15
In thesis
1. Wisdom of the Crowd for Fault Detection and Prognosis
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Wisdom of the Crowd for Fault Detection and Prognosis
2020 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Monitoring and maintaining the equipment to ensure its reliability and availability is vital to industrial operations. With the rapid development and growth of interconnected devices, the Internet of Things promotes digitization of industrial assets, to be sensed and controlled across existing networks, enabling access to a vast amount of sensor data that can be used for condition monitoring. However, the traditional way of gaining knowledge and wisdom, by the expert, for designing condition monitoring methods is unfeasible for fully utilizing and digesting this enormous amount of information. It does not scale well to complex systems with a huge amount of components and subsystems. Therefore, a more automated approach that relies on human experts to a lesser degree, being capable of discovering interesting patterns, generating models for estimating the health status of the equipment, supporting maintenance scheduling, and can scale up to many equipment and its subsystems, will provide great benefits for the industry. 

This thesis demonstrates how to utilize the concept of "Wisdom of the Crowd", i.e. a group of similar individuals, for fault detection and prognosis. The approach is built based on an unsupervised deviation detection method, Consensus Self-Organizing Models (COSMO). The method assumes that the majority of a crowd is healthy; individual deviates from the majority are considered as potentially faulty. The COSMO method encodes sensor data into models, and the distances between individual samples and the crowd are measured in the model space. This information, regarding how different an individual performs compared to its peers, is utilized as an indicator for estimating the health status of the equipment. The generality of the COSMO method is demonstrated with three condition monitoring case studies: i) fault detection and failure prediction for a commercial fleet of city buses, ii) prognosis for a fleet of turbofan engines and iii) finding cracks in metallic material. In addition, the flexibility of the COSMO method is demonstrated with: i) being capable of incorporating domain knowledge on specializing relevant expert features; ii) able to detect multiple types of faults with a generic data- representation, i.e. Echo State Network; iii) incorporating expert feedback on adapting reference group candidate under an active learning setting. Last but not least, this thesis demonstrated that the remaining useful life of the equipment can be estimated from the distance to a crowd of peers. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Halmstad: Halmstad University Press, 2020. p. 87
Series
Halmstad University Dissertations ; 67
National Category
Information Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-41367 (URN)978-91-88749-43-7 (ISBN)978-91-88749-42-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2020-01-31, J102 Wigforss, Kristian IV:s väg 3, Halmstad, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2020-01-14 Created: 2020-01-10 Last updated: 2020-01-14Bibliographically approved

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Fan, YuantaoNowaczyk, SławomirRögnvaldsson, Thorsteinn

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