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Reliability Evaluation of Power Cables Considering the Restoration Characteristic
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology, Halmstad Embedded and Intelligent Systems Research (EIS), CAISR - Center for Applied Intelligent Systems Research.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5863-0748
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology, Halmstad Embedded and Intelligent Systems Research (EIS), CAISR - Center for Applied Intelligent Systems Research.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3495-2961
Halmstad University, School of Information Technology, Halmstad Embedded and Intelligent Systems Research (EIS), CAISR - Center for Applied Intelligent Systems Research.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7796-5201
KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3543-9326
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(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This paper presents the use of the parametric proportional hazard model (PHM) for reliability ranking of power cables. Here, the Weibull PHM is used to estimate the failure rate of every individual cable based on the age of the cables and a set of explanatory factors. The required information for the proposed method is obtained by exploiting available historical data. This data-driven method does not require any additional measurements on the cables. After individual failure rate estimation, the cables are ranked for maintenance prioritization and repair actions.

Furthermore, the results of reliability analysis of power cables when considered as repairable or non-repairable components are compared. The paper demonstrates that the methods which estimate the time-to-the-first failure (for non-repairable components) leads to incorrect conclusions about reliability of repairable power cables. The results show that the conclusions about different factors in PHM and cables ranking will be misleading if the cables are considered as non-repairable components. The proposed method is used to calculate the failure rate of each individual Paper Insulated Lead Cover (PILC) underground cables in a distribution grid in the south of Sweden.

Keyword [en]
Power cable, historical data, reliability, proportional hazard model, preventive maintenance.
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-35470OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hh-35470DiVA: diva2:1159949
Note

As manuscript in thesis. Submitted.

Available from: 2017-11-24 Created: 2017-11-24 Last updated: 2017-11-24
In thesis
1. Data-Driven Methods for Reliability Evaluation of Power Cables in Smart Distribution Grids
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Data-Driven Methods for Reliability Evaluation of Power Cables in Smart Distribution Grids
2017 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This research aims to develop data-driven methods that automatically exploit historical data in smart distribution grids for reliability evaluation, i.e., analyzing frequency of failures, and modeling components’ lifetime. The results enable power distribution companies to change from reactive maintenance to predictive maintenance by deriving benefits from historical data. In particular, the data is exploited for two purposes: (a) failure pattern discovery, and (b) reliability evaluation of power cables. To analyze failure characteristics it is important to discover which failures share common features, e.g., if there are any types of failures that happen mostly in certain parts of the grid or at certain times. This analysis provides information about correlation between different features and identifying the most vulnerable components. In this case, we applied statistical analysis and association rules to discover failure patterns. Furthermore, we propose an easy-to-understand visualization of the correlations between different factors representing failures by using an approximated Bayesian network. We show that the Bayesian Network constructed based on the interesting rules of two items is a good approximation of the real dataset. The main focus of reliability evaluation is on failure rate estimation and reliability ranking. In case of power cables, the limited amount of recorded events makes it difficult to perform failure rate modeling, i.e., estimating the function that describes changes in the rate of failure depending on age. Therefore, we propose a method for interpreting the results of goodness-of-fit measures with confidence intervals, estimated using synthetic data. To perform reliability ranking of power cables, in addition to the age of cables, we consider other factors. Then, we use the Cox proportional hazard model (PHM) to assess the impact of the factors and calculate the failure rate of each individual cable. In reliability evaluation, it is important to consider the fact that power cables are repairable components. We show that the conclusions about different factors in PHM and cables ranking will be misleading if one considers the cables as non-repairable components. The developed methods of (a) are applied on data from Halmstad Energi och Miljö (HEM Nät), Öresundskraft, Göteborg Energy, and Växjö Energy, four different distribution system operators in Sweden. The developed methods of (b) are applied on data from HEM Nät.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Halmstad: Halmstad University Press, 2017. p. 70
Series
Halmstad University Dissertations ; 34
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-35147 (URN)978-91-87045-70-7 (ISBN)978-91-87045-71-4 (ISBN)
Presentation
2017-09-29, Halda, Visionen/house J, Halmstad University, Kristian IV:s väg 3, Halmstad, 10:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Funder
Knowledge Foundation
Note

Funding: Knowledge Foundation & HEM Nät

Available from: 2017-11-24 Created: 2017-10-04 Last updated: 2018-01-13Bibliographically approved

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Mashad Nemati, HassanPinheiro Sant'Anna, AnitaNowaczyk, Sławomir

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