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Short-term OD flow prediction for urban rail transit control: A multi-graph spatiotemporal fusion approach
Jilin Institute Of Chemical Technology, Jilin, China.
Jilin Institute Of Chemical Technology, Jilin, China.
Chinese Academy Of Sciences, Beijing, China.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7897-1673
Ningbotech University, Ningbo, China; Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
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2025 (English)In: Information Fusion, ISSN 1566-2535, E-ISSN 1872-6305, Vol. 118, article id 102950Article in journal (Refereed) In press
Abstract [en]

There is growing pressure to manage and run urban rail transit networks as more people select this mode of transportation for their travel. It is, therefore, essential to create a precise system to predict passenger movements from origins to destinations (OD). The effectiveness of the present methods in simulating links between stations using real-time passenger flow data is limited. This paper suggests a Spatiotemporal Fusion Network for OD flow forecasting in urban rail travel. By examining previous OD data, this network creates spatiotemporal link graphs connecting stations that integrate spatiotemporal correlations of passenger flows. These graphs are incorporated into the forecasting system to forecast OD flows. Using actual passenger flow data from Shanghai and Hangzhou, we validate our MGLTN model and show almost 4% improvement in prediction accuracy (measured by MAE) over many state-of-the-art baseline models on both datasets. We also present a dwell score derived from anticipated train frequencies and passenger flows. Each station receives a rating based on this score, which represents its dwell qualities in comparison to predetermined norms. © 2025

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2025. Vol. 118, article id 102950
Keywords [en]
Feature fusion, Graph convolutional network, Long short-term memory network, Origin–destination flow prediction, Spatial–temporal dependency, Urban rail transit
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-55379DOI: 10.1016/j.inffus.2025.102950Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85215539158OAI: oai:DiVA.org:hh-55379DiVA, id: diva2:1935098
Available from: 2025-02-06 Created: 2025-02-06 Last updated: 2025-02-06Bibliographically approved

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Tiwari, Prayag

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