Objectives: The aim was to study the development of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (RKOA) in individuals with knee pain over 2 years, and the associations between radiographic changes and baseline variables.

Design: Longitudinal cohort study.

Participants and setting: This study is part of the Halland Osteoarthritis cohort. The included 178 individuals, aged 30-67, had knee pain, without cruciate ligament injury or radiographic findings and 67% were women. The presence of RKOA was defined as Ahlbäck score of ≥1 in ≥1 knee. (Ahlbäck grade 1: joint space narrowing in the tibiofemoral joint <3 mm). Diagnosis of clinical KOA was based on the clinical guideline from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS), pain intensity, physical function, body mass index (BMI) and visceral fat area (VFA) were measured. Associations to RKOA were analysed with logistic regression (OR).

Results: In all, 13.8% (n=24) developed RKOA in 2 years whereof all had clinical KOA at baseline, as defined by NICE. Deterioration to RKOA was significantly associated with higher BMI, OR 1.119 (95% CI 1.024 to 1.223; p=0.013), and VFA, 1.008 (95% CI 1.000 to 1.016; p=0.049), worse knee pain intensity, 1.238 (95% CI 1.028 to 1.490; p=0.024), worse scores for KOOS Pain, 0.964 (95% CI 0.937 to 0.992; p=0.013) and KOOS Symptoms, 0.967 (95% CI 0.939 to 0.996; p=0.027), KOOS Activities of daily living 0.965 (95% CI 0.935 to 0.996; p=0.026) and KOOS Quality of Life 0.973 (95% CI 0.947 to 0.999; p=0.044), at baseline.

Conclusions: One out of seven individuals with clinical KOA developed RKOA in only 2 years. Baseline variables associated with RKOA after 2 years may possibly be detected early by using the NICE guideline, assessment of obesity and self-reported data of symptoms to support first-line treatment: education, exercise and weight control. © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024.